He failed to qualify for next week’s presidential debate, is bleeding cash, and is on a mere nine state ballots, reducing his chances to, “essentially nil.”
The most common reason people keep giving for voting Biden is “not trump”. And lots of people don’t like trump, but will never vote for any Dem.
If there’s literally any other options, it’s easier for someone to pick one rather than leave it blank or write in a name.
2020 was insanely close and decided by a handful of states.
It’s a weird situation where for most people their state is decided before the first vote is cast, where other states it could come down to 4 digit votes.
So things that seem like they’d have no effect, can actually be huge.
Like, RFK can cost Biden 10% in Cali, and it doesn’t matter at all. But if he costs 0.1% in Michigan it could change the election.
We need to switch to popular vote for president, but it’ll probably never happen. Until then random stupid shit like rfk can decide elections
I can’t see a world where RFK costs Biden a higher percentage than Trump in any state, that seems like FUD being spread by bad actors. I am not saying anyone here is a bad actor, I am just thinking that people are fearing the worst possible outcome and bad actors are praying on that to push an agenda and because of Wizard’s First Rule (“People are Stupid. People will believe anything because they want to believe it or because they are afraid it might be true.” [Amusingly that quote comes from an Author that if he were still alive would probably vote for Trump]) it spreads, just like most other misinformation.
You can’t just say he’ll cost Biden 0.1% in Michigan without also considering how much he would affect trump, if he costs Biden 0.1% and Trump 0.9% he still only gets 1% of the vote, but it hurt Trump 90% more than it hurts Biden, which in the end will actually improve Biden’s position. And the newly (within the last 4 years) never-Trumper republicans who would never-Biden as well who votes for RFK Jr can’t be counted as a “biden” vote since they would never vote for him to begin with, if anything its a vast majority of 2020 Trump votes that are shifted to RFK Jr.
RFK makes the race much closer, if he’s going down in flames, that’s good for Biden.
You can’t just say he’ll cost Biden 0.1% in Michigan without also considering how much he would affect trump
I didn’t, I said it doesn’t take much in one of the handful of states where votes matter. Because someone was saying they didn’t understand how RFK could effect the race.
Everything is hypothetical until the election. But if there’s only Biden and trump on people’s ballots, it’s likely to help Biden more than trump. This isn’t just some idea I came up with.
according to the poll of 1,261 adults surveyed May 21 through May 23. It found third-party candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein — not Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — are making the difference, pulling support away from Biden.
Emphasis added by me. And I agree, with the article, other 3rd party candidates are likely to pull more from Biden than Trump, but also in agreement with your article, not RFK Jr. And it goes back to people pushing RFK Jr as a threat to Biden, when in reality he’s not at all a threat to Biden. Its FUD being pushed by bad actors and people are falling for it and is distracting people from the real threats to Biden, which is Cornel West and Jill Stein.
It’s psychology.
The most common reason people keep giving for voting Biden is “not trump”. And lots of people don’t like trump, but will never vote for any Dem.
If there’s literally any other options, it’s easier for someone to pick one rather than leave it blank or write in a name.
2020 was insanely close and decided by a handful of states.
It’s a weird situation where for most people their state is decided before the first vote is cast, where other states it could come down to 4 digit votes.
So things that seem like they’d have no effect, can actually be huge.
Like, RFK can cost Biden 10% in Cali, and it doesn’t matter at all. But if he costs 0.1% in Michigan it could change the election.
We need to switch to popular vote for president, but it’ll probably never happen. Until then random stupid shit like rfk can decide elections
I can’t see a world where RFK costs Biden a higher percentage than Trump in any state, that seems like FUD being spread by bad actors. I am not saying anyone here is a bad actor, I am just thinking that people are fearing the worst possible outcome and bad actors are praying on that to push an agenda and because of Wizard’s First Rule (“People are Stupid. People will believe anything because they want to believe it or because they are afraid it might be true.” [Amusingly that quote comes from an Author that if he were still alive would probably vote for Trump]) it spreads, just like most other misinformation.
You can’t just say he’ll cost Biden 0.1% in Michigan without also considering how much he would affect trump, if he costs Biden 0.1% and Trump 0.9% he still only gets 1% of the vote, but it hurt Trump 90% more than it hurts Biden, which in the end will actually improve Biden’s position. And the newly (within the last 4 years) never-Trumper republicans who would never-Biden as well who votes for RFK Jr can’t be counted as a “biden” vote since they would never vote for him to begin with, if anything its a vast majority of 2020 Trump votes that are shifted to RFK Jr.
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden-trump-rfk-general/
RFK makes the race much closer, if he’s going down in flames, that’s good for Biden.
I didn’t, I said it doesn’t take much in one of the handful of states where votes matter. Because someone was saying they didn’t understand how RFK could effect the race.
Everything is hypothetical until the election. But if there’s only Biden and trump on people’s ballots, it’s likely to help Biden more than trump. This isn’t just some idea I came up with.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/30/biden-leads-trump-marist-poll-election/73906380007/
Unless this is one of those things where you’re gonna say polls aren’t real, if that’s the case this isn’t gonna be productive
From your own usa today article:
Emphasis added by me. And I agree, with the article, other 3rd party candidates are likely to pull more from Biden than Trump, but also in agreement with your article, not RFK Jr. And it goes back to people pushing RFK Jr as a threat to Biden, when in reality he’s not at all a threat to Biden. Its FUD being pushed by bad actors and people are falling for it and is distracting people from the real threats to Biden, which is Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Like I said it’s all hypothetical until the election.
My whole point was something that’s negligible on a national level, can still change the election in the few states that will decide the election.
But Trump voters are trump voters because they want trump. Biden voters are Biden voters… Because they don’t want trump.
The less options on a ballot the more “not trump” translates to “Biden”