Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn’t an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia’s oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that “align themselves with BRICS.” Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I’m not sure what exactly “alignment” means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It’s easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I’m cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it’ll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn’t impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • LoveYourself [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    23
    ·
    3 hours ago

    Israel Has Destroyed 67 Percent of Gaza’s Cemeteries

    The cemetery in al-Mawasi Gaza that was dug up by ‘israel’ yesterday.

    spoiler

    In a detailed statement issued on Friday, the ministry noted that since the start of the war in October 2023, occupation forces had either completely or partially destroyed roughly 40 out of Gaza’s 60-strong cemeteries.

    It further denounced Israeli forces for perpetrating a new crime by storming the historic Turkish cemetery in the al-Mawasi area west of the city of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.

    According to the ministry, Israeli tanks and bulldozers rolled into the site at dawn on Thursday, demolishing graves and exhuming corpses.

    The ministry condemned the outrage as “a scene that transcends the limits of humanity and [is] devoid of all religious and international values and norms,” noting that occupation forces had not only destroyed graves, but also “stole the bodies of martyrs and the dead.”

    The assault coincided with Israeli forces demolishing camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) encircling the cemetery, uprooting hundreds of families, who had sought refuge there from relentless bombardment.

    The ministry stressed that such coordinated attacks deepened Gaza’s already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

  • IceWallowCum [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    37
    ·
    4 hours ago

    Lula’s worker’s party in Brazil has both won the lottery and built a great strayegy with the prize.

    After Trump announced sanctions on Brazil, the major media outlets of the country, usually very right wing and all obviously ran by land owners, are either echoing the government’s communication on the matter, or have Lula on for great interviews about it.

    What probably happened is that the sanctions would affect the earnings of one of the classes that run the country: land owners/large farmers. On one hand, they have Lula’s party and allies, who have been mostly anti-us imperialism, and Bolsonaro and allies, whose whole thing was promising to give every last bit of our land to Americans. Well, who could possibly be their best bet in this situation? Now the fucking worker’s party is seizing the nationalism discussion away from the fascists and wrapping it around some form of anti-imperialism.

    The most interesting thing is the situation that is being drawn: it is now in the best interest of the country’s capitalists and landowners that they support the anti-imperialist front, and the leftists are actually taking advantage of this to get stronger. Does this seem absolutely insane to anybody else? It might be the weed I may have just now, but this realization blew my mind

  • tocopherol [any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    29
    ·
    edit-2
    5 hours ago

    Someone is doing “antifascist” agitprop in the government bathroom

    PBS News:

    A State Department employee shared with PBS News an image from inside the department. The image includes a piece of paper taped to a mirror with the words, “Colleagues, if you remain: RESIST FASCISM. Remember the oath you vowed to uphold.”

  • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    38
    ·
    6 hours ago

    With how much Russia is able to sustain toe-to-for attrition warfare against the west, imagine if the USSR, even in its late stages under Gorbachev, actually committed to a full scale attrition war against the West when it continued its imperialist aggressions. Actually took control of Europe by force and kept the West out of Eurasia and Africa.

    Over half of Ukraine’s munitions and equipment is ex-soviet. Imagine if that was pointed West instead of East while we had the chance. The war would be a guaranteed victory.

    I really think prioritizing unjust peace over anti-imperialist principled positions has been the most consistent mistake of the socialist projects thus far. War should not be shirked from over all else or we get Pez and Gorby and China’s foreign policy, which results in the West setting up as it sees fit to pick off the weakest links one by one.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    41
    ·
    edit-2
    7 hours ago

    Lula makes fun of Bolsonaro and says tariffs are based on “lies”. During an event in Espírito Santo about the Mariana dam, the PT leader made fun of what was supposed to be a conversation between Eduardo Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, with the former pleading for his father’s freedom.

    lula-bars "So I want to say, with all due respect to President Trump, you are misinformed, very misinformed. The United States does not have a trade deficit with Brazil. It is Brazil that has a trade deficit with the United States. Just so you have an idea, in 15 years, between trade and services, we have a deficit of 410 billion dollars with the United States. It’s up to us to tax him. Now, what is the reason he gives for taxing us? Firstly, he’s fighting a lie that the United States doesn’t have a deficit with Brazil. Secondly, what is his logic?

    [Lula does a voice mimicking Trump]: “Oh, pwease don’t presecute Bolsonaro, pwease stops this immediately. Stop this immediately!”

    [Lula returns to his normal voice]: Because the ‘thing’ [Jair Bolsonaro] sent a son [Eduardo Bolsonaro] who was a congressman away from the Congress to go there and ask:

    [Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: “Hey, Trump, for God’s sake, Trump, my free my daddy, don’t let my daddy be arrested, bwaah bwaah”.

    [Lula returns to his normal voice]: These people need to be ashamed of themselves. Be ashamed of yourself, be ashamed of yourself, because the smallest thing in a man, he has no character. You saw his son on the internet yesterday reading a letter:

    [Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: “‘Oh, Trump, Trump’ you know? ‘Pwease say you won’t tax Brazil, if my father isn’t arrested.’ What kind of man is this, folks? What kind of man is this who has no shame? Shouldn’t he be facing his trial head on and proving that he was innocent [instead of doing this]?”

  • cosecantphi [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    30
    ·
    7 hours ago

    I’ve noticed Ansarallah blurs out the surrounding terrain whenever they post missile launch videos, but most of the time it looks like totally nondescript hills and vegetation. Would it really be possible to figure out the location of these launches if they weren’t blurred? And if so, does the blurring actually help if you can still get a vague outline of the horizon like in this one?

  • Sanchista_Comunista [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    51
    ·
    edit-2
    10 hours ago

    Hey y’all. I’m an alt-acc of a user over here, made it for opsec purposes to post specific news regarding my home region, i.e. Spain.

    Maybe this isn’t news worthy to everyone, but I wanted to post regardless because it’s important to me (Spanish): Rent prices in my hometown rise to 8th highest in Spain

    With an interannual rise of 13%, of which 6 percent points over the past three months, the prices now stand above 20€/m² for the first time ever. This is the town I’ve been born in, raised, and lived until I was 23, and now that I’m back in Spain after some years abroad I’ve been outpriced from the town where I grew, as have been many of my friends. 20€/m² may not sound like a lot to fellow USian comrades, but salaries in Spain aren’t what they are over there. An average salary may be something like 1600-1800€ a month for a full time job, so a very modest 60m² flat would set you back monthly 1200€ of that.

    I wanted to share my pain, my family and some of my friends are here, and while I didn’t necessarily plan to live here all my life (and I don’t live here now, partially because of the prices), it absolutely fucking sucks knowing that I won’t be able to have a life here the same way my parents have had. When someone tells me about dangerous communism and forcible relocations during the literal direst times in modern history, I can’t help but feel like people are absolutely blind to the millions who are economically forced to relocate in capitalism during times of peace and abundance. But I guess, as always, economic violence doesn’t fucking count because I could technically choose to shove myself into a sardine-can apartment with 2 strangers while still dropping 1/3 of my income monthly to make the landlord richer. I have to live more than an hour away and buy a car and pollute the air and empty my wallet in the process to be able to see my fucking family. At least I can listen to socialist podcasts on the way telling me how monthly rent was 3% of the average income in the Soviet Union 55 years ago lmfao

  • Lisitsyn [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    34
    ·
    10 hours ago

    The El-Salvador of the Baltic: Estonia in Talks with NATO Members to Expand Estonia’s Prison Rental System

    ERR - Johannes Voltri today


    In addition to the agreement with Sweden, which has already reached the ratification stage, to keep its prisoners in Estonia, and Finland’s interest in concluding a similar agreement, there are other countries that have informally explored the possibility of renting prison places from Estonia, Justice and Digital Affairs Minister Liisa Pakosta said.

    “Yes, there are more than one. /—/ But I would skip discussing this list here,” Pakosta told Vikerraadio’s “Uudis+” programme on Friday.

    Asked to clarify the information, however, she added that Estonia has said from the beginning that the only reason to do this is for wider security cooperation. “Maybe we are only talking about NATO member states,” the minister said.

    At the same time, Pakosta stressed that Estonia, unlike many other countries, would rent out its prisons on the condition that Estonian laws would remain in force in these detention facilities, and he has said as much to Finnish Justice Minister Leena Meri.

    “It’s just that the Swedes have clearly been the quickest, and we have had these negotiations with the Swedes at executive level. Now it is up to the parliaments of both countries to decide. If the people’s parliaments in both countries ratify the agreement, it will go ahead. If they don’t, then we’ll start looking again,” he said.

    Asked whether he himself would like to conclude a similar agreement with Finland, the Justice Minister replied. We have no ambition to become some kind of country that rents out prison space. We are not aiming to rent out a prison for a prison.

    • Machine translated with DeepL
  • SexUnderSocialism [she/her]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    56
    ·
    12 hours ago

    Source: Arnaud Bertrand / Twitter

    This might be the most remarkable geopolitical document I’ve seen come out of a major European institution so far this century.

    France’s Parliament has just produced an extraordinary 153-page report that calls for nothing less than a complete strategic realignment of Europe.

    The document systematically dismantles the EU’s current geopolitical positioning - “vassalized” to the U.S., in the report’s words - as a catastrophic failure that has led to the EU seeing “its influence diminish and its interests poorly protected.”

    The report details 50 recommendations from the “creation of a common world currency” (recommendation #14) to dedollarize the global economy, to “replacing the EU’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific region with a cooperative approach including China” (recommendation #11).

    In general the report’s central recommendation is that Europe break free from Atlantic subordination and instead achieve strategic autonomy by partnering with China.

    This would mark a complete historical reversal - for the first time since the colonial era, the historical West choosing equal strategic partnership with a Global South nation as an alternative to Western alliance structures.

    The report (which you can find here: https://assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/rapports/due/l17b1588_rapport-information.pdf) is in French so I wrote a detailed article breaking down its most explosive findings and recommendations, an explaining why this could be its last chance to avoid irrelevance in a multipolar world.

  • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    35
    ·
    edit-2
    12 hours ago

    Egypt confirms acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system Military Africa

    Egypt has officially confirmed its deployment of the Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system, a move that marks a notable enhancement of its military capabilities and reflects a growing partnership with Beijing. This confirmation came from retired Major General Samir Farag, a former high-ranking official in the Egyptian Armed Forces, during an interview on Sada El-Balad TV. Farag revealed that Egypt’s arsenal includes various modern defence systems, with the HQ-9B—a system comparable to Russia’s S-400—being a key component. This disclosure, reported by Israeli media outlet nziv, reveals Egypt’s strategic shift toward diversifying its arms suppliers and strengthening its air defence network. The HQ-9B’s advanced capabilities, including its ability to engage a wide array of aerial threats, position Egypt to better address regional security challenges while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.

    Egypt’s decision to acquire the HQ-9B stems from a combination of strategic, economic, and political factors. Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo has turned to China for advanced systems that come without the political constraints often imposed by the United States and European nations. For instance, Egypt’s F-16 fleet, supplied by the U.S., is equipped with outdated AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, while France has withheld long-range MICA missiles for its Rafale jets. In contrast, China’s export terms are more flexible, offering Egypt access to cutting-edge technology without restrictive end-user agreements. The HQ-9B’s cost-effectiveness also makes it an attractive alternative to pricier Western systems like the U.S.-made Patriot PAC-3, which carries both a higher price tag and political strings. Compared to Russia’s S-400, the HQ-9B provides similar capabilities at a lower cost, though it lacks the same combat-tested pedigree.

    The timing of this acquisition is tied to Egypt’s evolving security concerns. Tensions with Israel over its actions in Gaza, along with Turkey’s support for Islamist groups in Syria and Libya, pose direct threats to Cairo’s interests. The Western-backed assault on Libya in 2011, with Turkish involvement, left a lasting impression on Egyptian leadership, reinforcing the need for independent aerial warfare capabilities. Egypt’s air force, while sizable, remains constrained by its reliance on Western suppliers, who have been reluctant to provide the most advanced munitions. The HQ-9B, alongside other Chinese systems like the Wing Loong-1D drones and reported interest in J-31 stealth fighters, signals a deliberate pivot toward Beijing as a defence partner. This shift not only enhances Egypt’s deterrence capabilities but also strengthens its bargaining power with Western allies, who may now feel pressure to loosen restrictions on arms sales.

    The HQ-9B’s deployment in Egypt also has broader implications for the Middle East’s balance of power. Israel, which maintains a qualitative military edge in the region, must now account for Egypt’s bolstered air defences. The system’s ability to detect stealth aircraft and intercept precision-guided munitions complicates Israel’s operational planning, particularly in scenarios involving strikes on Egyptian targets. Turkey, another regional rival, could face similar challenges if tensions escalate, as the HQ-9B extends Egypt’s defensive reach. Beyond Egypt, China’s growing role as an arms supplier challenges the dominance of Western and Russian systems in the Middle East. Countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan have already acquired the HQ-9B, drawn by its affordability and China’s willingness to transfer technology without political preconditions. Egypt’s procurement could inspire other nations to follow suit, further eroding the West’s influence in the region’s defence markets.

    This is the end of Russian military industrial complex. The India-Pakistan conflict truly marked the turn of the tide and the ascendence of Chinese military technology displacing those of Russia’s among Global South countries.

    I predict Russia’s economy will continue to worsen as it loses global market in military export, one of the few things Russia is actually good at and a major source of foreign income, and will in turn stifle investments in research and development over the longer term, ultimately leading to the demise of its status as a global leader in military technology.

    PS. Europe’s as well, no doubt.

  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    34
    ·
    edit-2
    14 hours ago

    private capital porkies are ecstatic sadness-abysmal

    bitcoin is at 118k, dow at 44k, seems they wriggled their way out of this jam (again), not-curious that with record profits, curious with falling out investment into primary means of production. Just straight worship towards oil/gas/weapons/ai

    interestingly, industrial rare metals (silver/copper/palladium, nickel is the exception) going upwards as well, welcome back converter thieves.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    36
    ·
    edit-2
    15 hours ago

    Over three years into the Ukraine war, Russia has finally stopped using lower frequency long wavelength radio for communications between strategic bombers . They are now using higher frequency shorter wavelength radio, suggested to be UHF, for communications. UHF radio is propagated by line of sight and has a much shorter range. This means Ukrainian hobbyist radio operators can no longer listen in on the communications of the bombers (for example, the bombers announcing the launch of cruise missiles and launch location on radio), and can no longer announce the launch of missiles on their telegram channels. These telegram channels only know that the missiles are on their way when they get detected and enter Ukrainian airspace. This change has affected all monitoring channels.

    How long before Russia uses SATCOM radio for long range secure communications on strategic bomber and refueling aircraft, so they can’t be tracked at takeoff and can operate “radio silent”. Do we have to wait another three years?