Trump says his tariff revenues will both pay down America’s $37 trillion debt and possibly fund a public “dividend,” but Treasury data shows they fall short of even covering monthly interest costs.

In exclusive interviews with Fortune, Wharton’s Professor Joao Gomes and AEI’s Desmond Lachman warned that while tariffs may slow debt growth, they won’t meaningfully reduce it.

Markets are largely skeptical of Trump’s math despite some unconventional revenue wins.