He / They

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Regulations are not laws. They are the specific implementation mechanisms of laws.

    For example, Congress passes a law like the Clean Water Act. But that law doesn’t (and cannot feasibily) lay out every single individual rule necessary to ensure the clean water that it seems to protect and provide.

    For example, it contains a section that requires Water Quality Standards to be set by each state, for themselves. However, if a state does not create them, the act authorizes the EPA to create a standard for them.

    That’s not the EPA “creating laws”, it’s the EPA implementing the confessionally-passed CWA.






  • I think what he means by “charismatic” is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers.

    I don’t think working “across the aisle” is really what this is about; I think this is purely about voters’ perceptions of them as people. But in either case, Biden sure isn’t winning anyone over with his personality who wasn’t already firmly center-right Neoliberal.

    I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it’s the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least.

    Gaza and Afghanistan are polar opposite reactions, depending on what flank of the Democratic party you’re on:

    • Gaza is an unmitigated disaster to the anti-war/anti-genocide/anti-SetCol Left flank, and a moderate success to the pro-Israel/ pro-war Neoliberal Right flank.
    • Afghanistan is an unmitigated disaster to the pro-war Neoliberal Right flank, and a moderate success to the anti-war Left flank.

    Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains.

    Understood. I guess for me my anger is more important right now, because this was so avoidable, and Trump feels like he’s close to coming back because of the DNC’s endless hubris (again). And I’ve already seen people trying to somehow blame the anti-genocide/ pro-Palestinian protesters for this over on Reddit, since they reflexively scapegoat any and all centrist Dem failures, and they don’t have a Bernie or Nader to scapegoat this time.





  • His model was previously based entirely on predicting the popular vote. Now he’s switched it to just predict the winner based on EC delegates. I think we’ll all be thrilled if Trump loses in November (or ideally, just plain dies), but a statistical model that doesn’t factor in things like Republicans trying to pull fake or rogue elector hijinks doesn’t fill me with confidence. And who knows what SCOTUS will do if it’s thrown to them (Lichtman also predicted Al Gore’s ‘win’).

    Also, looking at the list, I’m pretty sure more than 6 are false:

    1. True
    2. If you inspire 650,000 to conduct write-in votes against you, is that a challenge? In any case, not counting this as False.
    3. True
    4. Mostly true (and RFK really pulls from Reps anyways, polls show)
    5. Debatable, so I won’t count
    6. Debatable, so I won’t count
    7. Debatable. He did push a lot of changes, but the number of rightward-changes that happened under his watch (like Roe being overturned, MQD being bolstered, etc) have overshadowed basically everything else)
    8. False. This entire year has been non-stop protests, and not just over Gaza (1)
    9. False. Whether it was a bullshit thing to prosecute or not (it was), Hunter’s conviction is a major talking point on the Right to attack Biden (and specifically, to push independents towards viewing Biden and Trump as equally criminal). (2)
    10. False. Between the Afghanistan withdrawl and Gaza, he’s got military and foreign policy failures in both flanks’ eyes. (3)
    11. False. I think that if Republicans had not been paid by the Kremlin to sandbag aid to Ukraine, he might have had one, but as of now Ukraine is not a success, and I can’t think of any others that are known to voters. (4)
    12. False. He was never considered charismatic like Obama, or a “National Hero”. (5)
    13. False. Trump’s charisma among his base is a trademark of his populist campaign. It’s why Trump can dominate the Right and DeSantis falls flat. (6)




  • This is literally 2016 repeating itself.

    I really hate being right about the worst fucking stuff.

    Biden should never have been put up again, and his performance is gonna enthuse absolutely zero non-political-junkie normies to vote for him.

    With states being as voter-suppressed as they are, Dems cannot afford to be slightly ahead. Hillary was slightly ahead. You have to be WAY ahead, and Biden’s not.




  • Locker room humor generally refers to talk between guys, which could have sexual undertones, but isn’t normally something I’d think of as “sexually-oriented”.

    And flirting can range all the way from smiling long at someone at a cafe or calling them ‘cutie’ in conversation, to me spanking my s.o. as they walk by in a sexy outfit and telling them they’re gonna get punished if they keep distracting me from work- so there’s a huge range in there, some of which I’d definitely consider sexting, if texted to someone.

    Frankly, I have zero sympathy for him, because it’s very easy not to interact over direct message with fans at all, much less underage ones.

    I’ve worked customer-interfacing jobs that required a high level of direct, personal relationship-building before (sometimes even *gasp* with people I found attractive!), and I never once felt compelled to take those communications into a private space, and there was never even a potential for those people to have been kids.

    You don’t “stumble into” private messages with a minor that “get out of hand”.




  • Cleantech is a very dynamic sector, even if its triumphs are largely unheralded. There’s a quiet revolution underway in generation, storage and transmission of renewable power, and a complimentary revolution in power-consumption in vehicles and homes…

    But cleantech is too important to leave to the incumbents, who are addicted to enshittification and planned obsolescence. These giant, financialized firms lack the discipline and culture to make products that have the features – and cost savings – to make them appealing to the very wide range of buyers who must transition as soon as possible, for the sake of the very planet.

    The author focuses on the danger of startups dying out and therefore bricking your devices, but another major problem with startups is that they are VC-backed, and those VC investors are expecting the exact same unsustainable growth that the incumbent “market leaders” are chasing in their enshittification journeys. When the startups don’t die, they will also ‘have’ to enshittify, to satisfy investors.

    It’s not enough for our policymakers to focus on financing and infrastructure barriers to cleantech adoption. We also need a policy-level response to enshittification.

    Sadly, this is the impossible part. Policymakers (at least in the US) will never prioritize consumers over companies.

    Honestly, the best we can ever hope for is a law mandating that it’s no longer illegal to modify your tech if the company who operates it dies, or shuts down the backend server infra, but this will be opposed by basically every company out there (including if not especially video game companies, who won’t want to potentially have to allow people to develop and operate private servers for defunct MMOs).