I wouldn’t trust the US at all if I were him. Russia will not honor yhr cease fire but take advantage and Trump will blame Zelensky.
Spoiler alert: Trump will blame Zelenskyy
Double realpolitik spoiler: Zelenskyy expects that and is instead setting up a narrative to demand more action from sane countries (Canada, Europe) when the US inevitably renegs.
But as a fun little gift Rubio set the US up to look like assholes with a statement last night:
Rubio noted that if the Kremlin rejects the ceasefire proposal, “then we’ll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here.”
“Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking,” Rubio said, adding that U.S. President Donald Trump has been clear that he wants to stop the war swiftly.
This will be egg on the administration’s face when they try and walk it back when Russia says “fuck off”.
He set us up to look like assholes if we set Zelensky’s whole visit up to dunk on him and blame him for Russia’s invasion, so Rubio’s sprinkle of respectful/rational comments doesn’t really change things
“then we’ll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here.”
Like we didn’t already know that (see: Russia’s initial invasion). But facts and reason don’t matter to these clowns.
Again, of course we all know that, we all know that Russia is the aggressor here and Trump is clearly trying to put them in a favorable position for some reason that may be related to blackmail, future aspirations or just wanting to gargle Putin’s balls. These are facts that can’t change - but by accepting the cease fire and making these statements Zelenskyy is trying to maximize the blow back if and when America renegs to, ideally, maximize the support Ukraine can receive.
In the world of diplomacy appearance matters more than facts - three months ago America was the dominant economic force and had a military that could curb stomp anyone in formal battle - today America is still the dominant economic force and has a military that can curbstomp anyone in formal battle but they’re an unreliable partner and so America has lost nearly all of their outsized soft/diplomatic power - the facts are still essentially the same, but the perception massively shifted.
No he doesn’t.
Does he?
No - he can’t possibly. He’s not that stupid. He knows just as well as anyone and better than most that Trump can never be trusted, and especially when it comes to his idol Putin.
So he has to know that Russia could methodically reject or violate every single aspect of this deal, and Trump will just smile and nod and say, “Whatever you want Vladdy!”
So this has to be just a bit of careful rhetoric - an attempt by Zelenskyy to make the responsibility the US necessarily has for this deal manifest, so that he’ll have something to point to later on, when Trump inevitably betrays him.
He’s trying to make Trump look weak if he fails to meet our end of the bargain. He knows it will happen, Trump is weak, and Trump will say something like, “Strength is looking your enemy in the eye while you suck his dick.”
It’s meant to apply pressure. Failing to provide a strong response would mean that Trump is weak. He is both stroking Trumps ego and subtly poking it at the same time.
Mm… good point.
My rhetorical question aside, yes - it’s plain that what Zelenskyy’s actually doing is putting Trump on the spot.
But I hadn’t put together that the specific phrasing of it also strokes Trump’s ego - that’s a nice touch
You’re not the audience Zelenskyy is speaking to. He’s speaking primarily to an audience of one. The audience is Trump.
The spectators (i.e. the rest of Europe) are also watching this and observing that Zelenskyy is still doing his best to follow proper geopolitical and diplomatic form, and will probably continue to strengthen their support for Ukraine when orangeboi inevitably fucks them over again.
I really hope he doesn’t actually believe that and this is just a public statement for pressure, because this is Drump we’re talking about, his fingers are probably permanently crossed LMAO
If there’s anyone who can run circles around Little t, it’s … well, it’s anyone, but it’s also Zelenskyy.
And yet, here we are.
Zelensky should use any pause in the conflict to re-arm like mad. Divest from Starlink everywhere possible, and bring in European weapon systems. Don’t even think about slowing down until they’re mining Chernobyl for nukes with a stockpile already standing.
bring in European weapon systems.
What European weapon systems? The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. People forget that tanks are not the only weapon that armies have. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a single week before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.
Europe can’t produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M. And Russia has been massively out producing Europe in terms of air-launched cruise missiles so don’t bring up Storm Shadow or other similar weapon systems.
Germany’s 1 trillion euro aid package proposal to Ukraine nearly won the horrendous AFD party the election. Russia produced more T-90Ms last year than the amount the entire German military has. Production was 20-30 per month last year but this has likely since doubled. Losses for T-90Ms have been low as per Oryx with production massively outpacing losses (one to two months of production last year was enough to replace yearly T-90M losses).
Ukraine essentially has a stronger military than most of Europe combined. Ukraine had the same amount of tanks that Germany, France, Italy, and the UK have combined at the start of the war. At least half of these tanks were modernized with thermals, digital communications, etc. This large tank fleet was backed by a massive stockpile of T-64s and other tanks. The T-64BV Model 2017 is not much worst compared to a Leopard 2. It has second generation thermal, digital communications, a new gun stabilizer, and other improvements. Ukraine also had a hundred T-64BMs and T-64BM2s which are similar but have a more modern fire control system. Ukraine had at least half a thousand modernized T-64s with over a thousand more T-64s in stockpile to modernize. Ukraine also had more SPGs than all of these countries combined. Ukraine retained a significant stockpile of ammunition left over from the Soviet Union. Ukraine has hundreds of modern APCs and IFVs like the BTR-3 and BTR-4.
If Ukraine magically rearmed (because Europe is sure ill-equipped to), then Russia would simply throw more divisions into Ukraine as most of the Russian Armed Forces are not in Ukraine although such an invasion would likely still take months simply due to how massive the Ukrainian military is. The Ukrainian military at the start of the war was not that much smaller than the Russian military with Russia only having 3x the number of tanks while also having to maintain a vast force on the borders to protect itself from NATO.
The Russians are aware, and this won’t alter the fact that Ukraine has lost the war and won’t be able to re-arm in a pause. Russia has already stated many times previously that they aren’t willing to accept a ceasefire — why should they when they’re the winning side?
He will get a free Tesla…paid for by him. And he will fucking love it or else.
oh, the foreshadowing
For Russia, this ceasefire is most likely more helpful to re assess than it is for Ukraine.
It would be odd if Russia would decline it, and it might just be to provoke a reaction from the US, in whatever way that might be.
bro.
have you seen the clown in charge?!
US still thinks it’s your fault, Zelenskyy. Now that the idiotic administration will see you meeting with the Saudi Prince, who’s to say that they’ll think you’re siding with terrorists now because they can’t differentiate reality from fiction? They don’t have your back right now. Russia will reject the ceasefire, US will still think it’s Ukraine’s fault, continue sucking Putin’s dick and stop supporting altogether.
US still thinks it’s your fault, Zelenskyy.
