Image is of Assad and his family.
After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.
Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah’s resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria’s collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like “this is bad” and “Assad is fucking up”; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.
There is still too much that we don’t know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah’s assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.
What is certain is that Assad’s time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Oop another Syrian scientist murdered, 3 now.
“ Syrian scientist Shadia Habbal, an internationally renowned doctor of physics, was killed along with her husband in Damascus. Earlier, nuclear microbiologist Zahra al-Homsi was killed with two bullets to the head.”
We all know that Israel is responsible for this. Their destruction of the Syrian state is incredibly sad to watch, with Israel bombing with impunity and assassinating scientists. As bad as the Assad government was, there’s a reason many supported him in different ways for over a decade, even when it was difficult to do so. Because the Assad government and the SAA were the only thing preventing this from occurring. Now that they’re gone, now that Syrian air defences, and patrols at the Golan Heights, no longer exist, we can see the end result. Something many have been warning about for years and years.
Was Assad so bad domestically that Syrians would cheer for his removal despite knowing what the Zionist entity would do to Syria the day after?
The economy was badly hurt by the sanctions. They have no control over their own oil reserves. Assad or not, nobody could prop up the economy over the long term. There is simply no alternative to the US-led globalized economy post-Soviet collapse.
Also, Russia is an exception to the rule when it comes to sanctions: food and fuel self-sufficient, very low external debt, military industries and at least some level of industrial remnants from the Soviet era. Iran is doing ok-ish but barely.
Most countries don’t even have the necessary conditions to survive full blown Western sanctions unless their people are fully ideologically prepared to live like the people do in North Korea or Cuba.
This cannot be ignored or waived away. Look at where the majority of Syria’s oil fields are located, who controls that territory, and most importantly, which countries military bases are located in that territory. Then you will find out where Syria’s oil is going and the country responsible for stealing it.
spoiler
It’s USA military bases. The US has been straling Syria’s oil
And the West hasn’t lifted the sanctions yet, and they’ll use the excuse that Julaninsky is a head-chopping jihadist and doesn’t respect human rightsTM to keep the sanctions.
So the question can be rephrased: Was Assad so unpopular domestically that Syrians would cheer for his removal despite knowing the sanctions aren’t going away?
They’ve had devil they know for 10 years, probably decided devil you don’t know might be better at that point.
And why wouldn’t they? Put some training camp for etim fighters, cleanse the kurds for erdie, recognize golan heights for pisrael, bada bing you are now a respected leader of the second democracy in the middle east.
No, Sunni supremacists are a large group in Syria and there’s nothing Assad could have ever done to make them happy. He was an infidel and a secularist, there was no way to appease these radicals except killing them or giving into them - and Turkey prevented the clean up
So for many Syrians, it really boils down to them hating Julaninsky less because “well, at least he’s a Sunni Arab and he’ll chop the heads off of the Kurds/Alawites/Druze/Christians/Shia before focusing on us?” Asking genuinely. I don’t know a lot about Syria, especially its internal contradictions.
Yes that is a large contingent, especially of the ones being pent up in Idlib
No need for torture prisons when you kill them all
Atleast there were some procedures when it came to jailing/executing people under Assad, chain of signatures and all, the fundamentalists are really reducing the paperwork.
That’s the McKinsey consulting in action baybee