Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I don’t really think this is the right way to view this.
There simply aren’t enough air-to-surface missiles in the entire Western arsenal to defeat Iran. They would have to run bombing missions. The F-16 combat radius fully loaded is not enough to run bombing missions from Israel without mid-air refueling. Iran might not have the ability to shoot down an F-16 easily, but it does probably have the capability to shoot down the IDF’s tankers.
The issue with conducting an IDF bombing mission against Iran is that it requires the IDF to fly through someone’s airspace. Iran might not have S-400s, but Russia does have S-400s in Syria. Should the choose to, they could move them out of Latakia and into a position that would make flying through Syria a bad choice.
That leaves the IDF flying through at least Jordanian airspace, which brings us to the real threat that Iran has. Anyone who let’s the IDF operate on the ground or in their airspace is immediately putting a target on their back. Iran might not have an air force capable of making Jordan pay for letting the IDF use their airspace, but what it does have is a bunch of rockets and ballistic missile they can use to launch a missile barrage at it. That also applies even more so to any of the Gulf states/Azerbaijan that would let the US or the IDF run bombing missions from one of their airbases. Iran has more than enough fire power to destroy the oil production of the GCC and the Azeris, bringing global economy (and the Israeli economy and war machine in the case of the Azeris and the BTC pipeline) to a screeching halt in the process. What happens to the UAE when they can’t produce/refine and foreigners are too afraid to go spend money in Dubai? What happens to KSA when their refineries are blown up and NATO is too busy to repel an Ansarallah invasion?
That leaves you with US aircraft carriers as the option with the least amount of blowback on the West’s comprador states. I feel like this sub has heard enough about the potential weaknesses of those vis-a-vis the Millennium Challenge and Iran’s preparations to deal with the US Navy through the US of fast attack torpedo and missile boats.
I’ve talked before about how there are options between sitting on their hands and total war, and Iran needs to start engaging in some of those things. This is why. The US and it’s allies, to some extent or another, are afraid of this war really exploding, but they know that Iran is afraid of it, too. They have betting (and so far correctly) that they play chicken with Iran, leveraging its fear of regional war to get them to do what the US/Israel wants, be that coordinate “retaliations” with the people they are supposed to be retaliating against, or holding off on retaliating against Israel entirely with promises they have no intention of following through on. Iran has to show the West that it is not afraid to climb the ladder of escalation, and to drag the rest of the region into chaos with it.