The Democratic nominee has consolidated the leads she gained after her debate with Donal Trump, in which she was widely seen to have bested the former president.
Current polling data has Cruz trailing by 1 point, and Scott’s lead has fallen to within the margin of error. If either seat is flipped, that changes this article’s projected 51/49 Republican senate to a 50/50 senate with the vice president breaking the tie.
For Cruz, I didn’t see a newer poll yet when I checked before commenting, looks like that last one was posted today (or they’re lying for SEO). Although the survey ends on the same date, so the data itself isn’t actually newer.
And most of the other polls go back into August, so while the poll showing Cruz behind could be an outlier, it could also be reflective of a change in the race. We just don’t have a lot of good data to work with here. The Morning Consult polls are the largest ones we have, and the only ones to come from the same firm with the same methodology, allowing an apples to apples comparison. That lends at least a little credibility to the idea that Cruz might be in trouble, and it’s definitely a close race either way, but I would definitely want more data backing it up before concluding that Cruz is actually losing.
As for Scott, yeah, most polls have him up by 3 or 4, give or take. He’s not losing, but he’s definitely vulnerable. And with abortion being on the ballot in Florida this year, I know I’d be sweating a little if I were in his position.
All I was getting at is that both candidates are potentially vulnerable, and either losing would prevent the Republicans from taking the senate as the article predicts.
Current polling data has Cruz trailing by 1 point, and Scott’s lead has fallen to within the margin of error. If either seat is flipped, that changes this article’s projected 51/49 Republican senate to a 50/50 senate with the vice president breaking the tie.
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For Cruz, I didn’t see a newer poll yet when I checked before commenting, looks like that last one was posted today (or they’re lying for SEO). Although the survey ends on the same date, so the data itself isn’t actually newer.
And most of the other polls go back into August, so while the poll showing Cruz behind could be an outlier, it could also be reflective of a change in the race. We just don’t have a lot of good data to work with here. The Morning Consult polls are the largest ones we have, and the only ones to come from the same firm with the same methodology, allowing an apples to apples comparison. That lends at least a little credibility to the idea that Cruz might be in trouble, and it’s definitely a close race either way, but I would definitely want more data backing it up before concluding that Cruz is actually losing.
As for Scott, yeah, most polls have him up by 3 or 4, give or take. He’s not losing, but he’s definitely vulnerable. And with abortion being on the ballot in Florida this year, I know I’d be sweating a little if I were in his position.
All I was getting at is that both candidates are potentially vulnerable, and either losing would prevent the Republicans from taking the senate as the article predicts.
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Tim Walz: oh gollie gee, let’s burn this fucking filibuster to the ground.