I agree if it happens it should be Kamala, I only bring Dean Phillips up because he actually has a handful of delegates pledged to him. It is less of a stretch to pick someone who campaigned for the job and actually got primary votes vs. someone who didn’t even participate in the primaries.
being born in USA", that sort of arbitrary weirdness
The actual requirement is “natural-born citizen”, which doesn’t really have a definition. John McCain was born on a US military base in Panama, Rafael Edward Cruz was born in Calgary, yet both were citizens at birth and nobody contested their status as “natural-born” when they ran for President
Maybe the party needs to adopt bylaws saying that there shall be no fewer than three candidates in any Presidential primary, even for an incumbant. That will take away a bit of the stigma against challenging an incumbent. It would no longer be a direct challenge to the establishment, and more of a party role to fill.
Yes, the primaries may be a huge joke, but they at least have the veneer of democracy over them. Primaries are formal elections run by each state, so there are laws to follow regarding how delegates are applied.
Here’s what I think now: I’m sure Barack Obama watched that debate, and came to the same conclusion we all did. If anyone has Biden’s ear on this, it’s Obama. Obama needs to get on the phone with Joe, and have a heart-to-heart about how fucking devastating that thing was. He should point out how much damage was done by RBG not retiring when it was her time to do so. I’m sure he had those discussions directly with her in 2015.
(Edited to add: according to the NYT, Obama’s not going there
“Bad debate nights happen,” Mr. Obama said in a statement. “Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/us/politics/biden-democrats-nominee-2024-election.html
I still have confidence that Joe can do the job, but not so much that he is electable anymore. I hope I’m wrong, and in November, if he is on the ballot I will still vote for him, and not regret it.
In retrospect, maybe we should have had a Primary debate after all.
Just made a large post on this elsewhere, but the TL;DR is that the party can’t just replace Biden. He has all the delegates from the primaries. Do you really think the party that is campaigning on preserving Democracy can get away with ignoring elections?
Now, it’s possible that Biden gets diagnosed with a severe case of not-gonna-win-itis which adversely affects his health to the point that he has to resign not only from the campaign, but from the Presidency. If that happens, Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President, and has the only real claim to take over the ticket. It has the fun side effect of making Trump reprint all his hats to say “45 - 48” instead of “45-47”.
(The Secret Service better take good care of President Harris, because whatever VP she appoints to take over that role needs to get a majority vote in both houses of Congress, and the House will never do it.)
The biggest argument against removing Biden from the ticket against his will is that we went through a bunch of primaries, and he has won enough delegates to be the nominee. For the party that claims to be about protecting democracy, it would be a stretch to tell all those Primary voters “Hey, guess what? Your vote doesn’t really count” so directly.
But, there are contingency plans for a reason. If Biden’s doctors decide he has a sudden case of chronic not-gonna-win-itis that is affecting his health, and he gets a sudden medical diagnosis that forces him from the race (and the Presidency), there are precisely two people who can take over without the Democratic Party totally abandoning the democratic process:
the newly minted 47th President. Kamala Harris. While she did not get any delegates herself, as Biden’s VP she shares the ticket and would take over the Presidency once he backs out.
Dean Phillips , who as far as I know is the only other candidate to get any Primary delegates. No, “uncommitted” doesn’t count.
Nobody else can swoop in and take over, because they have no legitimate relationship to the Biden ticket, or to the primaries.
Making a mental note to come back here later, as I am busy today and this looks important.
If you are too busy to click through, the list is here:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wikipedia:Deprecated_sources
The list itself looks reasonable. Note that on Wikipedia, this is not a blanket ban on discussion, but links that go to those sources generally get removed.
Sounds like a good idea, but I need more time to process the list. It looks like there are tiers to it, not every source is banned outright.
Trump’s debate performance was awful, but so was Biden’s, and somehow because this country is weird as hell Biden is held to a much higher standard than Trump while also being immensely unpopular.
Trump’s performance as a debater was awful. He ignored the questions put to him, and frequently lied through his teeth. But, you could put a clip from this debate alongside a clip from his debate with Hillary 8 years ago, and not really see much of a difference.
The reason people are freaking out is that Biden’s age was on full display here. His stutter was much more visible, his voice was raspy at times, and he frequently couldn’t finish his thoughts before the mic went off. We also have a long history of his time in government to know how he used to be.
If this election turns into a referendum on Biden’s age, he loses. Even though Trump is only 3 years younger. Trump doesn’t show it.
He still ranted and raved like a crazy person based on what I’m reading.
His ideas and concepts were crazy, but his delivery really hasn’t changed much since we first saw him in debates in 2016. Biden’s clearly has. If you were living under a rock and didn’t already know everything you needed to about these two men, you never would have guessed that only three years separated them.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Jordan pulled his contempt Citation for the AG after this. They don’t need the audio of the Special Counsel investigation to put in attack ads anymore.
The closest thing we’ll get to that is in the polls over the next few days, and the moving forward to the election.
But even then, the numbers don’t have to move very much in order to make a difference. GA has 11 million people, and Biden won there last time by only 11k votes. Do you think a GA poll (much less a national poll) would pick up 11k people there changing their votes, or 22k people deciding to not vote at all (or vote for the brain worm guy instead)? That can all happen in the margins, outside of any ability for the rest of us to detect it.
I watched it all, and Biden did a much worse job than Trump did. Trump lied his way through the whole thing, but we expected that going in. I don’t think Democrats expected Biden to look this feeble.
No, not many people are going to change their vote because of this. But the last few elections have been one with very close margins in a handful of states. It doesn’t take that many people in certain zip codes to decide they can no longer support Biden to turn the election. They don’t even have to turn to Trump, they can go third party or stay home.
I’m not a fan of replacing Biden this late in the process, if that happens for any reason other than Biden’s health then it basically renders all the Primaries invalid, and puts party officials in a position to make the decision, not voters. And let’s be fair: Democrats who were watching saw that Biden was actually able to make his points, and draw a clear distinction between his positions and his opponent. Nobody is saying that the substance of Biden’s performance was wrong, they’re all just upset over the optics of his performance, and his ability to attract those last few voters in PA and WI that he needs.
I recall thinking that Biden lost the first debate in 2020, also. He managed to come back then. We’ll see about this time.
But they are lies his voters believe
“Temu is designed to make this expansive access undetected, even by sophisticated users,” Griffin’s complaint said. “Once installed, Temu can recompile itself and change properties, including overriding the data privacy settings users believe they have in place.”
That’s just nuts
I wish all it took was a can of Mountain Dew to “fix” dementia. I would have had so much more quality time with all those older relatives.
Hey, kids, if your grandparents are still around and coherent, take the time to ask them about their lives when they were younger.
Just like when he told Obama to show his birth certificate.
Which he did, and the birthers promptly dismissed as a fake. So complying with their demands does nothing but makes the lie go farther.
Never mud wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it.
I don’t find it that hard to believe, they’re responding anonymously
If they’re responding anonymously on the Internet, they could be anyone. We have no way of knowing whether they really are hiring managers, or whether the site doing this “poll” made it up for clicks. I’m skeptical of everything I read on the Internet, even if it comes to a conclusion I agree with.
I’d be very interested to know what the wording was in their survey of 600 “HR managers”. Because I find it hard to believe that companies would file job posts that they never intend to fill – and then admit it in a survey. I find it more likely the Internet is trolling them
On the other hand, I would expect companies to put up job posts that they have every intention to fill if the right candidate comes along, but structure the job requiremrnts so that precisely 10 people in the entire country are fully qualified for the well-compensated position. And then complain that they can’t fill the position while collecting everyone’s resumes and getting back to a few of them saying “That position is no longer open, would you consider this one at half the salary?”
Don’t worry, little Yankee fan. It’s not your fault you ran headfirst into the Grimace Effect. Now come closer – I need to bottle up some of those tears for comfort when the wheels fall off the wagon after the ASG, as is tradition.
It’s all statistics. It means that if we ran the 2024 election millions of times in his model, Trump would win more than Biden. But we will only get one shot, so the number is kind of useless.
I was watching the Mets game this weekend on ESPN, and they were ahead of the Cubs by a few runs. ESPN has a tracker that estimates “Win Probability” and their model gave the Mets a 75% chance to win. But have you seen the Mets this year? They’ve blown a bunch of games late. Every Mets fan watching knew that their bullpen wasn’t good enough to merit that rating.
The Mets did end up winning that game. (Thanks, Grimace.) But that doesn’t change the fact that no matter what math is behind their win prediction model, it just doesn’t feel right to apply statistics like that to one-off events.
Don’t you think he looks tired?