A number of counterattacks by the Ukrainians, in some cases using reserve forces, have taken place along the line of contact. While reports are not yet
Counterpoint, a tank trying to use terrain for cover is going to lose the ability to “see” so the drones will have the advantage. They’ll be able to get close enough to spot for artillery or drop their payload before the electronic jamming + robo-AA gun can do its thing. Open terrain would give the AA and jamming a better chance of being effective but the optics on a drone are probably good enough to see the tank (and call in artillery) well before any of the anti-drone kit would effective.
The anti-drone kit will always be more expensive to develop, field, maintain, and keep operating in the field than a 500 dollar drone with few 1980’s era anti-tank landmines strapped underneath with a custom fuse installed.
And its not like the drones even need to get a catastrophic kill to be successful. Damage the optics on the fire control system and the main gun is far less effective, damage the thermal/nightvision scope and the tank is effectively blind during most of the time its going to operating, ding the barrel enough to get a bend and the main gun can’t be fired, the ring mounted machine guns can’t take too much damage, a chunk of their ammunition is going to be strapped to the outside of the turret and can easily be lost if a 1/2 pound of explosive gets close enough when it goes off to send shrapnel into the ammo cans, strap some white phosphorous or thermite to the drone and if it can melt the antenna the radios are pretty much useless…
the tanks will obviously have their own drones and infantry support lol, a tank is usually not the best reconnaissance equipment whether drones are around or not. an autocannon and the electronics required for targeting drones might be an expensive initial investment, but the individual 20-30mm shells will not be quite as expensive, probably similar in cost to a mine or a grenade, especially if a hypothetical organization had a mature industry dedicated to producing war materiel (i.e. Russia), and a single gun system could hypothetically take out multiple drones, unlike an american style missile system where each shot costs tens of thousands of dollars at least. Infantry usually cannot carry weapons with the range or accuracy to target drones, but they can still recon and feed intelligence to things that can carry large weapon systems.
I definitely think tank and vehicle design will drastically change, i think traditional large cannons and heavy armor on tanks will become less important for ‘frontline’ military vehicles, and they will have something like a drone swarm hangar or missiles as a primary weapon system, with smaller weapons like autocannons and large MGs for emergencies/ambushes, with less overall armor and more of a focus on situational awareness and maneuverability.
like, hypothetically even an infantryman could damage a tank with handheld equipment, or even just by digging a ditch at the right place and hiding it. this doesn’t make all tanks obsolete forever. tanks have excellent range compared to infantry, and can carry heavier equipment more effectively over rough terrain than trucks, and working in tandem with well coordinated infantry can respond to a variety of threats effectively, especially if equipped for the specific threats they will face. Add drones into the mix on BOTH sides of a conflict, and the tank has access to excellent aerial surveillance and even counter-swarms of its own drones to intercept those of the enemy.
Using a scenario like ukraine, where one side relies on paltry numbers of the outdated equipment of another country’s already outdated and grift-laden armament industry stripped of all the advanced electronics and armor and munitions, to argue the point that drones have completely replaced tanks for all time in perpetuity, is getting abit ahead of ourselves i think. Russia still makes and uses tanks, China still makes and maintains tanks, i’m sure Hamas would love to be able to produce and use tanks if they had the opportunity and proper conditions. like sure the American tanks are overdesigned expensive grift crap, but you can still hypothetically build a cheaper and similarly effective tank.
Counterpoint, a tank trying to use terrain for cover is going to lose the ability to “see” so the drones will have the advantage. They’ll be able to get close enough to spot for artillery or drop their payload before the electronic jamming + robo-AA gun can do its thing. Open terrain would give the AA and jamming a better chance of being effective but the optics on a drone are probably good enough to see the tank (and call in artillery) well before any of the anti-drone kit would effective.
The anti-drone kit will always be more expensive to develop, field, maintain, and keep operating in the field than a 500 dollar drone with few 1980’s era anti-tank landmines strapped underneath with a custom fuse installed.
And its not like the drones even need to get a catastrophic kill to be successful. Damage the optics on the fire control system and the main gun is far less effective, damage the thermal/nightvision scope and the tank is effectively blind during most of the time its going to operating, ding the barrel enough to get a bend and the main gun can’t be fired, the ring mounted machine guns can’t take too much damage, a chunk of their ammunition is going to be strapped to the outside of the turret and can easily be lost if a 1/2 pound of explosive gets close enough when it goes off to send shrapnel into the ammo cans, strap some white phosphorous or thermite to the drone and if it can melt the antenna the radios are pretty much useless…
the tanks will obviously have their own drones and infantry support lol, a tank is usually not the best reconnaissance equipment whether drones are around or not. an autocannon and the electronics required for targeting drones might be an expensive initial investment, but the individual 20-30mm shells will not be quite as expensive, probably similar in cost to a mine or a grenade, especially if a hypothetical organization had a mature industry dedicated to producing war materiel (i.e. Russia), and a single gun system could hypothetically take out multiple drones, unlike an american style missile system where each shot costs tens of thousands of dollars at least. Infantry usually cannot carry weapons with the range or accuracy to target drones, but they can still recon and feed intelligence to things that can carry large weapon systems.
I definitely think tank and vehicle design will drastically change, i think traditional large cannons and heavy armor on tanks will become less important for ‘frontline’ military vehicles, and they will have something like a drone swarm hangar or missiles as a primary weapon system, with smaller weapons like autocannons and large MGs for emergencies/ambushes, with less overall armor and more of a focus on situational awareness and maneuverability.
like, hypothetically even an infantryman could damage a tank with handheld equipment, or even just by digging a ditch at the right place and hiding it. this doesn’t make all tanks obsolete forever. tanks have excellent range compared to infantry, and can carry heavier equipment more effectively over rough terrain than trucks, and working in tandem with well coordinated infantry can respond to a variety of threats effectively, especially if equipped for the specific threats they will face. Add drones into the mix on BOTH sides of a conflict, and the tank has access to excellent aerial surveillance and even counter-swarms of its own drones to intercept those of the enemy.
Using a scenario like ukraine, where one side relies on paltry numbers of the outdated equipment of another country’s already outdated and grift-laden armament industry stripped of all the advanced electronics and armor and munitions, to argue the point that drones have completely replaced tanks for all time in perpetuity, is getting abit ahead of ourselves i think. Russia still makes and uses tanks, China still makes and maintains tanks, i’m sure Hamas would love to be able to produce and use tanks if they had the opportunity and proper conditions. like sure the American tanks are overdesigned expensive grift crap, but you can still hypothetically build a cheaper and similarly effective tank.