You shouldn’t trust TDP numbers. They’re most useful to get a ballpark idea of what size cooler you’ll need for a given chip (and even then, Nactua has their own rating system for matching coolers to chips). AMD, in particular, reinvents their TDP formula regularly and plays with the numbers to get the output they want for comparison purposes.

Anyway, I’d be fine if ARM ends up being only on par with x86. It’s still a way out of the insanity of the x86 architecture and opens up so many more companies who can make chips.