A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

  • wildginger
    31·
    1 year ago

    … What? Did you click on the wrong comment?

      • wildginger
        21·
        1 year ago

        You wanna try your comment again, then, and make it relevant to the comment youre clicking on?

        Or was the comment being gibberish intentional?

        • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
          1·
          1 year ago

          I don’t see what is confusing. You made the claim that the act of predicting a recession can cause a recession and stated a mechanism. I pointed out that predictions of recessions are rarely accurate and the mechanism doesnt work the way you described.

          • wildginger
            21·
            1 year ago

            Yeah, see, this is why I think you clicked on the wrong comment.

            I said that an economy is a result of humans acting, and that the act of stating a recession is coming is enough to change peoples actions to either cause or prevent a recession.

            You then launched into some unrelated nonsense about being lemmings.

            Do you need help finding the comment you meant to respond to?

              • wildginger
                21·
                1 year ago

                You really struggle with reading, eh sport? Not one for grasping words?

                Do you wanna try responding to things Ive said? Isntead of whatever that ghost in your head is whispering to you?