To start, everything you’re saying is entirely correct

However, the existence of emergent behaviours like chain of thought reasoning shows that there’s more to this than pure text predictions, it picks up patterns that were never explicitly trained, so it’s entirely feasible to ponder if they’re able to recognize reverse patterns

Hallucinations are a vital part of understanding the models, they might not be long term problems but getting them to understand what they actually know to be true is extremely important in the growth and adoption of LLMs

I think there’s a lot more to the training and generation of text than you’re giving it credit, the simplest way to explain it is that it’s text prediction, but there’s way too much depth to the training and model to say that’s all it is

At the end of the day it’s just a fun thought inducing post :) but when Andrej karparthy says he doesn’t have a great intuition on how LLM knowledge works (though in fairness he theorizes the same as you, directional learning) I think we can at least agree none of us know for sure what is correct!